Comparing two stocks side by side: the metrics that matter
Most investment decisions are comparisons. Not "is this stock good" but "is this stock better than that one, for the money I would put in it". A comparison is only as good as the rows in the table, and the wrong rows produce confident wrong answers. This guide walks through the metrics worth comparing, what each one tells you, and the order to read them in.
Performance, on the same axis
The first row is return, and the first mistake is to compare prices. A stock at four hundred dollars and a stock at forty tell you nothing about each other until both are rebased to the same starting point. FundSpec's compare chart sets every ticker to zero at the start of the chosen window and plots each one's cumulative return from there, so that two lines on the chart are directly comparable however different their prices.
Read performance over more than one window. A stock that has beaten another over a year may have lagged it over the last month, and the recent divergence is often the more interesting fact.
Risk, before you fall in love with return
The second row is how the return was earned. Realised volatility over thirty and ninety days measures how much the price moves day to day; two stocks with the same return and different volatility are not the same investment. Maximum drawdown over the past year is the largest peak to trough fall, and it is the number that tells you what holding the stock felt like at the worst moment. Beta against SPY measures how much the stock moves for a given market move, and correlation against SPY measures how closely it follows the market at all. A stock with high beta and low correlation is volatile for its own reasons; one with beta near one and correlation near one is the market with a different name.
Liquidity
Average dollar volume over three months is the size of the market in the stock. It decides how easily you can enter and leave, and how much a large order moves the price. Two stocks that look identical on every other row can be different investments if one trades a hundred times the volume of the other.
What the sell side thinks
The number of analysts covering a stock is a measure of attention, and the low, average and high price targets are the range of their views. The gap between the average target and the price is the implied upside, and the width between the low and high is how much they disagree. A wide range on one stock and a narrow one on the other means the first is a debate and the second is a consensus. ETFs have no analyst coverage, and the rows are blank for them.
Valuation and fundamentals, in context
Raw fundamentals compared across two companies are only meaningful if the companies are similar. A software firm and a retailer will differ on every margin for structural reasons. FundSpec shows each fundamental with its percentile rank across the whole US market, so that a net margin of twelve percent reads as "better than seventy percent of stocks", and marks the better of the compared values. Read the percentiles first and the raw values second.
For subscribers, the FundSpec fair value rating and the momentum label sit in the same table. A stock rated undervalued with bullish momentum and a stock rated overvalued with bearish momentum are a comparison that answers itself; the interesting cases are the ones that disagree, and those are where the rest of the table earns its place.
Do not let one row decide
The failure mode of a comparison table is anchoring on the single row that confirms what you already thought. The defence is to decide before you look which three rows matter for the decision you are making, and to read those three first. For a long term holding, growth, returns on capital and valuation. For a trade, momentum, volatility and liquidity. For income, yield, payout and drawdown. The rest of the table is context.
Comparing stocks with ETFs
The compare view accepts any mix of stocks and ETFs, which makes one particular comparison possible: a stock against the fund that holds it. If the stock has not beaten its own sector ETF over a year, with more volatility and a deeper drawdown, the fund was the better holding, and the table will say so without any commentary.
How FundSpec shows it
The Compare screen lines up stocks and ETFs on a shared rebased chart, live quotes, trailing returns, the fifty two week range, realised volatility, the worst drawdown of the past year, typical dollar volume, beta and correlation against SPY, analyst price targets, fundamentals with their market percentile, and, for subscribers, fair value and momentum. Any comparison can be shared as a link.
Put this to work in the FundSpec web app. The same screen is in the iOS and Android apps.
Open Compare